A Proposer has $100 to divide with a Responder. The Proposer does not know the Responder's individual preferences but has access to data about how offers have been received by others in the Responder's community. This data provides the estimated probability that a given offer will be rejected.

Based on the data below, which offer should the Proposer make to maximize their own expected financial outcome?

• Offer $20 to the Responder (Probability of Rejection: 60%)
• Offer $30 to the Responder (Probability of Rejection: 40%)
• Offer $40 to the Responder (Probability of Rejection: 10%)
• Offer $50 to the Responder (Probability of Rejection: 1%)

Co-Founder Equity Negotiation

Calculating Expected Payoff

Critiquing a Strategic Decision

Evaluating Decision-Making Strategies in a Negotiation

Analyzing a Flawed Bidding Strategy

A person (the 'Proposer') has $100 to divide with another person (the 'Responder'). The Proposer must decide how much to offer the Responder. To inform this decision, the Proposer has collected data on the likelihood of different offers being rejected by people in the Responder's community. The Proposer's goal is to make an offer that maximizes their own potential financial gain. Match each potential offer scenario with the Proposer's correct calculated expected payoff.

A person (the 'Proposer') needs to decide what offer to make when splitting a sum of money. To make a financially rational decision for themselves, they plan to use community data that shows the rejection probability for different offers. Arrange the following steps into the correct logical order for this decision-making process.

A Proposer is calculating their expected payoff for an offer. They will multiply the amount they stand to keep by the probability the offer is accepted. The community data they have only provides the 'probability of rejection' for any given offer. Therefore, to find the probability of acceptance, the Proposer must subtract the ______ from the number 1.