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The classic example of the Confounder effect is the strong association between ice cream sales and crime rate. 

The observed relationship is that as ice cream sales increase, the crime rate increases, however we attribute the increase in ice cream sales and crime rate both to change in season from winter to spring and summer. 

During nice weather, there are more ice cream sales, but also more people outside in close proximity to each other, increasing the potential for crime. 

If we hold the weather constant, we will observe that ice cream sales have no effect on the crime rate.

Example of the Fork and Confounders

A researcher studying city data finds a strong positive correlation: the more firefighters are present at a fire, the more financial damage the fire causes. The researcher concludes that sending more firefighters to a blaze actually causes more damage. Which statement best explains the flaw in the researcher's conclusion?

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