“...found strong support for R remaining below 1 in the Midlands assuming that all other transmission patterns remain unchanged.”


Smith College

The analysis showed increased R values as more year groups returned to school at the same time, and among the year groups, secondary school students caused the highest increase in R when they returned to school. Interestingly, none of the scenarios raised R above 1.

Differences in the impact of different school opening strategies on contact patterns and secondary infections

Keeling, M., Tildesley, M., Atkins, B., Penman, B., Southall, E., Guyver-Fletcher, G., Holmes, A., McKimm, H., Gorsich, E., Hill, E., Dyson, L. (2020). The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England. medRxiv doi: 10.1101/2020.06.04.20121434

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.04.20121434v1

The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England

Strict: “contact between children, and therefore the risk of secondary infection occurring, is extremely low.”

Weaker: “a higher rate of mixing between children and a slight increase in risk of secondary infections occurring”

Both: 
“the average number of secondary infections per index infection is below 1 for all age groups and the value of R remains significantly below 1"


<Strict School Closure>  and <Weaker School Closure> Scenarios in Midland region of England


- “a slight increase in contacts compared to the weaker closure scenario”

- “increased transmission between individuals in these age groups" 

- “even within these age groups, the total number of secondary infections per index case remains below one”

- “the overall reproduction number value of R was only observed to have slightly increased from the scenarios in which schools remain closed"


<Years 0, 1, and 6> Scenario in Midland region of England

- "A slight increase in mixing, and hence R”
- “R remains below 1.”


<All Primary> Scenario in Midland region of England

Both:

- “a significant increase in mixing was observed within those age groups”
- “the number of secondary infections as a result of index infections in secondary schools was predicted to be above one”
- “this expected number of cases is distributed across multiple age-groups thereby dissipating the worst effects"

<Some Primary + Years 10 and 12> and <All Primary + Years 10 and 12> Scenarios in Midland region of England

- “In general, we found secondary schools to represent a higher risk of increased transmission potential than primary schools.”


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