When the projected increase in wasting in each country is combined with a projected year average of 25% reduction in coverage of nutrition and health services, we estimate there would be 128605 (ranging from 111 193 to 178510 for best and worst case scenarios) additional deaths in children younger than 5 years during 2020, with an estimated 52% of these deaths in sub-Saharan Africa.

Northwestern University

- MIRAGRODEP projections 
- microeconomic model projections 
- amount of additional deaths

Impact of COVID-19 on nutrition in LCIM

Headey D., Heidkamp R., et al. 27 July 2020. Impacts of COVID-19 on childhood malnutrition and nutrition-related mortality. The Lancet. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31647-0

Impacts of COVID-19 on childhood malnutrition and nutrition-related mortality

MIRAGRODEP projections suggest that even fairly short lockdown measures, combined with severe mobility disruptions and comparatively moderate food systems disruptions, result in most LMICs having an estimated average 7·9% (SD 2·4%) decrease in GNI per capita relative to pre-COVID-19 projections.

MIRAGRODEP projections

This model suggests that decreases in GNI are associated with increases in child wasting. There could be a 14.3% increase in moderate to severe child wasting among children 5 and younger due to COVID-19 in LMICs. This amounts to 6.7 million children, with 57.6% of children coming from south Asia and 21.8 from sub-Saharan Africa.

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