1. Counting possibilities - consider all possibilities that are consistent with known information
2. Combining other information - factor in additional information to determine plausibility of conjecture
3. Converting counts to probability


How to approach determining the plausibility of a conjecture:

Consider every single outcome that could occur
Conjectures - possibilities consistent with the information available

University of Connecticut

- Bayesian Statistics considers all possible paths that yield different outcomes
- Plausibilities are probabilities – prior plausibility and posterior plausibility 

Plausibility

Bayesian Analysis

When there is no reason to say that one conjecture is more plausible than another, weigh all of the conjectures equally


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