Classification of studies on COVID-19 Transmission in China by Province

"Intense non-pharmaceutical interventions were put in place in China to stop transmission of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). As transmission intensifies in other countries, the interplay between age, contact patterns, social distancing, susceptibility to infection, and COVID-19 dynamics remains unclear. To answer these questions, we analyze contact surveys data for Wuhan and Shanghai before and during the outbreak and contact tracing information from Hunan Province. Daily contacts were reduced 7-8-fold during the COVID-19 social distancing period, with most interactions restricted to the household. We find that children 0-14 years are less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection than adults 15-64 years of age (odds ratio 0.34, 95%CI 0.24-0.49), while in contrast, individuals over 65 years are more susceptible to infection (odds ratio 1.47, 95%CI: 1.12-1.92). Based on these data, we build a transmission model to study the impact of social distancing and school closure on transmission. We find that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control COVID-19. While proactive school closures cannot interrupt transmission on their own, they can reduce peak incidence by 40-60% and delay the epidemic."

Abstract for Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

The first COVID-19 case in South Korea was confirmed on Jan. 20, 2020. The epicenter of the outbreak in South Korea is in Daegu, a city of almost 3 million people 150 miles SE of Seoul. Church services in Daegu have been the main cause of spread. Based on data collected from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the  effective reproduction number in this area was estimated to be 1.5 as of Feb. 26, 2020. Nation-wide preventative measures are expected to reduce the reproduction number to below one. 

Transmission Potential of COVID-19 in South Korea

In (Tokyo) Japan, most infections of COVID-19 have been linked back to a party in a traditional wooden ship, called a Yakatabune. In Yokohama, Japan, there has been another outbreak on board the Princess Cruise Ship. After the two week quarantine period came to an end, 621 people on board the ship tested positive for COVID-19, out of the total 3,711 passengers and crew members on board. The effective reproduction number (Rt) had a maximum value of 11.2 (the epidemic threshold is 1.0). In this instance, it was found that passenger to passenger transmission type dominated. The Japanese government handled this outbreak well, and have kept the confirmed number of COVID-19 cases below 20,000 as of July 6, 2020. 

Transmission Potential of COVID-19 in Japan

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

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