Autocracies with low state capacity generally failed to mount an effective response to COVID-19. Burundi, for example, tried to ignore the pandemic and suppress information, which did nothing to resolve the crisis and resulted in their outgoing president dying of the disease. Autocracies with stringent policies also failed to counter COVID-19. In Hungary, Prime Minister Orbán placed military commanders in charge of hospitals, punished journalists for reporting on the pandemic, and allowed the military to use deadly force against civilians who did not obey pandemic orders. However, these harsh policies have not been effective—as of writing (June 2021), Hungary has the second-highest number of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million citizens in the world. 

Ineffective COVID-19 Responses Among Autocracies

Many democracies have succeeded at curbing the pandemic. South Korea and Taiwan responded swiftly to COVID-19, implementing effective testing and contract tracing policies. New Zealand also stands out as a democracy with one of the lowest number of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths per million citizens in the world. New Zealand’s low levels of infections and deaths—as well as low disparities in infections and death across populations—is often credited to its swift and concerted pandemic response.

Effective COVID-19 Responses Among Democracies

Several case studies counter the dominant narrative that autocracies generally handled COVID-19 better than democracies.

Wesleyan University

The evidence supporting the association between regime type and pandemic response is mixed. Some case studies seem to suggest that autocracies have better pandemic responses than democracies, while others suggest the opposite. Comprehensive quantitative analyses find that democracies have been better at restricting geographic mobility than autocracies; they also find that certain indicators of democracy are not significantly associated with COVIDmortality. However, the most advanced democracies in the world still appear to have the worst pandemic responses, leaving open questions for further research.

Evidence for Regime Type and COVID-19 Response

A comprehensive cross-country analysis of movement restriction policies during the pandemic found that, although autocrats implemented more stringent lockdowns of their countries, democracies saw a 20% greater decrease in their citizens’ movement, suggesting that democracies controlled their citizens’ movement better than autocracies. Greater protection of civil rights was also significantly associated with greater obedience to movement restrictions. Therefore, a democratic government might be better able to implement policies meant to counter the pandemic.

Success of Movement Restrictions in Democracies vs. Autocracies

The supposed flaws of democracy—particularly components of democracy that decentralize power—are not associated with COVID-19 mortality. A 2020 cross-country quantitative analysis of COVID-19 mortality around the world found that neither federalism nor the existence of veto players—two components of democracy typically blamed for gridlock and ineffective policy-making—were significantly associated with COVID-19 mortality.

Core Components of Democracy and Pandemic Response

The typical case studies used to compare democracies and autocracies on COVID-19 response are two of the largest countries in the world: China and the United States.

Typical Case Studies of COVID-19 Response

Contrary Case Studies of COVID-19 Response

Current data suggest that wealthy countries have disproportionately more COVID-related deaths than poorer countries. However, developing countries might not have the capacity to report death tolls as accurately as developed countries. In the context of previous pandemics, it is also likely that developing countries have experienced much higher death tolls throughout this pandemic than is being reported. If this is the case, then any analysis of COVID-19 mortality is hampered by incomplete data. As such, we may not know the association between regime type and COVID-19 mortality until after the pandemic, if the data is more complete by then.

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