However, many autocratic leaders have lost popularity in countries that still have elections. For instance, the popularity of illiberal leaders in Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia has plunged throughout the pandemic in large part due to unpopular government policies. COVID-19 could therefore hurt autocracy, not just democracy.

COVID-19 and the Declining Popularity of Autocrats

If the narrative that democracies failed to effectively counter the pandemic persists, then autocrats could have a powerful tool at their disposal to convince even more voters to support them. Autocratic movements could strengthen or arise in countries hard-hit by the pandemic.

Wesleyan University

Anecdotal analysis of different countries’ responses to the COVID-19 pandemic has often pitted major autocracies like China against large democracies like the United States. This common media narrative typically notes how China has been more successful in curbing COVID-19, whereas the United States has struggled to mount an effective federal response to the pandemic. This comparison has led some academics to investigate whether autocracies (or dictatorships) are better at handling crises like COVID-19 than are democracies.

Regime Type and COVID-19 Response

Despite inconclusive research and incomplete data, a narrative has arisen during the COVID-19 pandemic suggesting that autocracies like China are better at handling the pandemic than advanced Western democracies.

COVID-19 and Democracy's Apparent Weaknesses

There are a few divergent theories among scholars as to why democracies or autocracies might be better or worse at responding to emergencies (such as Covid-19).

Theories for Regime Type and Emergency Response

COVID-19 and Democracy’s Apparent Weaknesses: Implications

The evidence supporting the association between regime type and pandemic response is mixed. Some case studies seem to suggest that autocracies have better pandemic responses than democracies, while others suggest the opposite. Comprehensive quantitative analyses find that democracies have been better at restricting geographic mobility than autocracies; they also find that certain indicators of democracy are not significantly associated with COVIDmortality. However, the most advanced democracies in the world still appear to have the worst pandemic responses, leaving open questions for further research.

Evidence for Regime Type and COVID-19 Response

The association between regime type and COVID-19 response is mixed, though it at least seems that autocracies are not inherently better at responding to pandemics than are democracies. However, alternative explanations that might be more clear-cut exist in the literature, particularly explanations concerning a country's culture, trust in government, and previous experience with handling public health crises.

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