Prediction in statistical learning

10 themes for Superforecasting

A city's transportation department is considering adding a new bus line. Two planners present their forecasts for its potential ridership:

• Planner A: "My cousin started taking the bus last year and loves it. People are tired of driving. I predict this new line will be immediately popular and serve 5,000 riders per day within the first month."
• Planner B: "Surveys on the proposed route show high interest from 20% of residents. Similar lines in three comparable cities saw a 5-8% ridership increase in their first year. I predict the new line will serve 1,500-2,000 riders per day after six months of operation."

Based on the principles of making a sound forecast, which planner's prediction is more robust and why?

Evaluating a Business Sales Forecast

Match each statement to the category that best describes it. To do this, you must analyze whether the statement is about the future, if it is based on evidence, and if it can be objectively verified.