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Example of Affective Forecasting: Misjudging the Impact of Life Events

People are often incorrect when estimating how positive or negative life events will change their long-term happiness. It is easy to imagine feeling permanently euphoric after events such as winning the lottery, being asked on a date by an attractive celebrity, or being offered a dream job, or to imagine feeling permanently miserable after a disabling accident or the end of a romantic relationship. For example, long-suffering fans of the Chicago Cubs baseball team, whose team had not won a World Series championship since 1908, thought they would feel permanently elated when the team finally won another World Series in 2016.

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Updated 2026-07-06

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