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Essay

Future Inflation Path After a Supply Shock

Consider an economy that has just experienced a major, adverse supply-side shock, such as a sharp increase in global energy prices. This has pushed the general price level up, eroding the real purchasing power of wages and leading to a period of high inflation. Based on the interplay between how firms set prices and how wages are determined, analyze the three most critical factors that will shape whether this high inflation becomes entrenched in the medium term or subsides. For each factor, explain the specific mechanism through which it influences the future path of inflation.

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Updated 2025-09-19

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