9% of infected patients were admitted to the ICU, with a mortality rate of 26%

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

Syracuse University

With the second-highest COVID-19 death toll after China, Italy as been unable to significantly reduce cases. Patient mortality trends show that the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions are at higher risk, and casualties are linked to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), caused by the virus. Italy's government has restricted region populations to minimize close personal contact, but the constant rise in cases still heavily stresses the staff and resources of hospitals and care facilities. From working both day and night shifts, around 20% (n=350) of medical staff have contracted COVID-19 or died. To reduce capacity, uninfected ICU patients in Lombardy are being transported to hospitals outside the region. 

Italy's COVID-19 Situation and Government Intervention (February)

Grasselli G, Zangrillo A, Zanella A, Antonelli M, Cabrini L, Castelli A, et al. (2020). Baseline Characteristics and Outcomes of 1591 Patients Infected With SARS-CoV-2 Admitted to ICUs of the Lombardy Region, Italy. JAMA.
https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.5394

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764365

Baseline Characteristics and Outcomes of 1591 Patients Infected With SARS-CoV-2 Admitted to ICUs of the Lombardy Region, Italy

Predictions for March cases were made based off the number of infected in February; There may be more than 30,000 infected patients by March 15. This number is similar to the statistic for the initial phase of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the pattern of cases shown in Italy seems to follow a similar trend to China’s trend. The exponentially increasing cases leads to a prediction that the health capacity of the nation will be at full capacity in a few days, for the number of ICU beds available in Italy is nearly 5200. The big question is if the new cases will require ICU admittance and for how long cases will continue to increase. If the numbers do not dwindle down, there may be disastrous consequences both clinically and socially. 

March Prediction for ICU Situation in Italy

The rise in COVID-19 cases is leading to ICU specialists prioritizing patients who have a better chance of living. The government is attempting to control the situation by stating all lives have the right to healthcare, passing legislation to hire more healthcare professionals and ventilators, and restricting travel as well as social events. These decisions must be made quickly to keep the number of cases from escalating even more.

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