- Reproductive Number (R$_t$): Wuhan - effects of travel restrictions

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

China:
- China
- Wuhan, China
- Shenzen province
- Hunan province
- Shandong province
- Mainland China

 Instantaneous Reproduction Number (R$_t$) of COVID-19 by Geographic Region

 Instantaneous Reproduction Number (Rt) of COVID-19: Wuhan, China

In Shenzhen, they estimated that the mean Rt was above the epidemic threshold for approximately 1 week (from Jan 18 to Jan 23), with a max value of 1·08 (95% CI 0·74–1·54) on Jan 22. The outbreak was mostly sustained by cases with travel history to or from Wuhan or Hubei 

Instantaneous Reproductive Number: Shenzen province in China

Shandong province showed a slightly longer epidemic period than Hunan characterized by sustained local transmission and a larger peak mean Rt of 1.71 on Jan 23 (1·32–2·17). 

Instantaneous Reproductive Number (R$_t$): Shandong province, China

In Hunan province, it was estimated that the mean Rt was above the epidemic threshold for approximately 2 weeks (Jan 13 to Jan 28) with a peak value of 1.34 on Jan 20 (1·06–1·68). 

Instantaneous Reproductive Number (R$_t$): Hunan province, China

 Instantaneous Reproduction Number (R$_t$) of COVID-19 within regions of China

A mathematical modelling study estimated that the median daily net reproduction number in Wuhan declined from 2.35 (95% CI 1·15–4·77) 1 week before travel restrictions were introduced on Jan 23 to 1.05 (0·41–2·39) 1 week after.

Reproductive Number (R$_t$): Wuhan - effects of travel restrictions

- Overall, (R$_t$) had a negative association with both the Baidu Index (BDI) and Baidu Migration Scale (BMS); thus, demonstrating that public awareness could possibly decrease transmission of the virus. 

- A one-unit increase in BDI was associated with a 0.0295% (95% CI: 0.0077, 0.051) decrease in (R$_t$).

- A one-unit decrease in BSM was associated with a 2.7% (95% CI: 0.382, 4.7) decrease in (R$_t$).


Instantaneous Basic Reproduction Number (R$_t$) of COVID-19 and its Relationship with Public Awareness in Mainland China

- The estimated (R$_t$) of Novel-Coronavirus Pneumonia from Dec. 8, 2019 to Feb. 9, 2020 in mainland China was 3.51 (95% CI: 2.91-4.09). 

- There were two respective waves that occurred on Jan. 8 and Jan. 27. However, after Jan. 27, the (R$_t$) showed a decreasing trend and eventually settled at 1.68 (95% CI: 1.66-1.7) on Feb. 9, 2020.



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