A researcher tests a new therapy designed to reduce anxiety. After the study, a statistical analysis indicates there is a 4% probability that the observed reduction in anxiety in the therapy group occurred purely by chance. Based on the standard conventions for drawing conclusions from data, should the researcher claim that the therapy has a genuine effect? Justify your answer.

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A primary goal in statistical analysis is to limit the rate of 'false positive' claims, which are erroneous conclusions that an effect exists when it does not. Psychologists achieve this by setting a strict criterion for statistical significance, commonly accepting a 5% or lower probability that the observed results are due to chance.

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