Causation

Wage and Price Setting with a Negative Bargaining Gap

During a recession, wage and price adjustments are influenced by both inflation expectations and the negative bargaining gap created by high unemployment. In the wage-setting process, the nominal wage increase is determined by adding the bargaining gap to the expected inflation rate. For example, if workers anticipate 3% inflation but a -1% bargaining gap exists, human resources departments can negotiate a nominal wage increase of only 2%. This outcome leads to a 1% fall in the real wage. Subsequently, in the price-setting process, firms' marketing departments respond to these lower wage costs. Assuming competitive conditions remain stable, firms will increase their prices by less than the expected inflation rate to avoid ceding market share to rivals, thereby putting downward pressure on overall price inflation.

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Updated 2026-05-02

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