- Bayes’ Theorem: Pr(W, L, p) = Pr(W, L|p) * Pr(p)
- Expected value: Pr(W, L) = E(Pr(W, L|p))

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

Bayes' Theorem describes the probability of an event given prior knowledge of a related and/or previous event.


General formula: P(A|B) = [P(B|A) * P(A)]/[P(B)]

1. P(A|B)	=	probability of A given B is true
2. P(B|A)	=	probability of B given A is true
3. P(A), P(B)	=	the independent probabilities of A and B


Formula applied to globe example:
P(p|W, L) = [P(W, L|p)*P(p)]/[P(W, L)]

Bayes' Theorem 

McElreath, R. (2020). Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and STAN (2nd ed.). Chapman and Hall/CRC.

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