Shelter-in-place prevention efforts are less effective in preventing/controlling COVID-19 transmission in African American/black and Latino populations, possibly because these populations are more likely to 1) experience homelessness or to reside in areas of substandard air quality 2) be employed in service/ transportation positions 3) live in crowded urban areas and 4) have high rates of underlying conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, asthma, HIV, morbid obesity, liver disease, and kidney disease.

Decreased Effectiveness of COVID-19 Prevention Efforts in African American/Black and Latino Populations

The paper presents three models that could be used to understand the pandemic and the spread of the coronavirus in an inexpensive manner such that effective health policies could be developed for the US and other countries. The three models can be connected to each other and be specific to a region. Overall, due to the models being able to determine the effects of social distancing on the virus, they show the dangers of relaxing public health interventions when there is no vaccine or specific treatment available for the coronavirus. It is also important note that this paper was a July 2020 paper and some data is outdated. 

The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 

Depending on the severity of physical distancing intervention, it could have an impact on delaying the epidemic peak. The various outcomes are evaluated using predictive models.

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

Physical distancing, also known as social distancing, is being used as a strategy to delay the progression of COVID-19 by reducing direct transmission of infection. The three most used methods are:
Physical Distancing,
Isolation,
Quarantine

Physical Distancing to Prevent the Spread of COVID-19

Prem, K., Liu, Y., Russell, T. W., Kucharski, A. J., Eggo, R. M., Davies, N., ... & Abbott, S. (2020). The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. The Lancet Public Health.

The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

Physical distancing measures including but not limited to school and workplace closures and health promotions that encourage the general public to avoid crowded places, are designed to drastically shift social mixing patterns and are often used in epidemic settings. A distance of 6 feet is encouraged between people not living with each other in public spaces.

What is Physical Distancing?

Potential Outcomes of Physical Distancing Interventions

The SEIR model simulates the outbreak over a 1 year period

The population is divided into four categories based on infection status:
Susceptible (S)
Exposed (E)
Infected (I)
Removed (R)

SEIR Model of COVID-19 Outbreak in Wuhan, China

There were three different levels of intervention used for the model to predict the outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China:

**First level:** no change to social mixing patterns

**Second level:** minor to moderate change in social mixing patters due to holiday and school breaks (no intervention)

**Third level:** intense intervention (changes to school and work)

Different Levels of Intervention for Modeling

The simulations showed that control measures aimed at reducing social mixing in the population can be effective in reducing the magnitude and delaying the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Key Point: Physical Distancing is Effective

Quarantining refers to the practice of keeping potentially infected people away from healthy people. The quarantine period can last as long as the disease's communicable period or expedited through a negative infection test.

What is quarantine?

Isolation refers to keeping infected persons away from healthy people. 

Learn Before

Related

Learn After