Probable COVID-19 associated deaths are defined as individuals with COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 written on their death certificate as an immediate, underlying, or contributing cause of death, but are missing a laboratory-confirmed report of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

When identifying COVID-19 associated deaths, it's important to understand what methods are being used to compile the fatality statistics. It is possible to underestimate the severity of the pandemic if deaths aren't appropriately accounted for.
- Confirmed COVID-19 associated death
- Probable COVID-19 associated death
- Excess death

Types of COVID-19 Associated Deaths

Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak —
New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6919e5
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Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak —
New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020

Confirmed COVID-19 associated deaths are defined as people who have died with a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Confirmed COVID-19 associated death

Probable COVID-19 associated death

All-cause excess deaths are defined as the number of deaths that exceed seasonal expected levels. This metric is often used to assess severity of pandemics in a given community. Unlike the count of confirmed and probable COVID-19 associated deaths, this measure might include deaths of individuals who were not tested, false negatives, those who died outside of hospitals, and cases where patients were not suspected to have SARS-CoV-2 infection. Failure to address excess death is likely to result in underestimation of the impact of COVID-19.

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