Method: Computational modeling of potential epidemic trajectories 

Approaches: Assume SARS-like levels of case-to-case variability in the numbers of secondary cases and a SARS-like generation time with 8.4 days, and set number of cases caused by zoonotic exposure and assumed total number of cases to estimate R0 values for best, median, and worst cases.

Estimate of Reproductive number: 1.5-3.5 (2.5)

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

- Reproductive number Wuhan (December 31 2019 to January 28 2020)
- Reproductive number Wuhan (December 8 2019 to January 26 2020)
- Reproductive number Wuhan (January 18 2020)
- Effects of Countermeasures on the Reproductive Number in Wuhan

Studies on COVID-19 Reproductive Number in Wuhan, Hubei, China

Liu, Ying, et al. “The Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Is Higher Compared to SARS Coronavirus.” Journal of Travel Medicine, vol. 27, no. 2, 2020, doi:10.1093/jtm/taaa021.

The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus

Method: Stochastic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) 

Approaches: MCMC methods with Gibbs sampling and non-informative flat prior, using the posterior distribution 

Estimate of Reproductive number: 2.68 (95% CI 2.47-2.86)

Reproductive number Wuhan (December 31, 2019, to January 28, 2020)

Method: Mathematical Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model 

Approaches: Adopted mean serial interval lengths from SARS and MERS ranging from 6 to 10 days to fit the IDEA model

Estimate of Reproductive number: 2.0-3.1 (2.55)

Reproductive number Wuhan (December 8, 2019, to January 26, 2020)

Reproductive number Wuhan (January 18, 2020)

In Wuhan, aggressive implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including a cordon sanitaire of the city, suspension of public transport, school, and most work, and cancellation of all public events reduced the reproductive number from 3.86 to 0.32 over a 5-week period 

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