University of California, Davis

- Model simulations created using data from New York and Washington suggests that even less effective masks have large implications in decreasing transmission rates of COVID-19.
- The greatest advantages are conferred when face masks are used in conjunction with other countermeasures such as physical distancing, sanitation, and personal hygiene. Nation-wide adoption, and high compliance rates are key to limiting the spread of the virus.

Compartmental Model Assessing Community-Wide Usage of Face Mask

Eikenberry, S. E., Mancuso, M., Iboi, E., Phan, T., Eikenberry, K., Kuang, Y., ... & Gumel, A. B. (2020). To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic. Infectious Disease Modelling.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.04.001

To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

β0 is the infectious contact rate, a parameter that measures the capability of an infected individual to transmit a disease. This model simulates an epidemic and measures the change in β0 by varying the effectiveness of masks worn by symptomatic people vs. those of that worn by the general public. Baseline β0 is 1.5/day.

β0 - Masks for symptomatic alone vs. general population

Simulated epidemics with β0 as a function of varying mask coverage and efficiency. At 50% coverage with 50% efficient masks, the disease transmission rate is approximately halved.

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