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Reference
Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters
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Updated 2021-01-24
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Psychology
Social Science
Empirical Science
Science
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Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters
Triage
Balance Inside and Outside Views
Update your Beliefs
Everything is Connected
Remove Uncertainty ( in prediction )
Balance Prudence and Decisiveness
Learn from Failure and Sucess
Manage the Team
Master the error-balancing bicycle
Task Decomposition Heuristic