Doubtful Consensus Messaging and Climate Change

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (2006)

Nicholas Stern

A government is reviewing a proposal for a new, costly environmental regulation. A report is presented that establishes an overwhelming consensus among climate scientists that human activity is the primary cause of significant environmental changes. However, the report also acknowledges that a very small number of scientists disagree with this conclusion. From a risk management perspective, what is the most logical interpretation of this situation for the policymakers?

The existence of a small number of peer-reviewed studies that question the primary role of human activity in recent climate shifts is sufficient to invalidate the claim of a scientific consensus on the matter.

Evaluating Arguments on Environmental Policy

Significance of Scientific Consensus for Economic Policy

Interpreting Scientific Agreement

Match each term related to the nature of scientific findings with its most accurate description, particularly in the context of large-scale environmental issues.

Critiquing Media Representation of Scientific Consensus

The existence of an overwhelming scientific consensus that human activity is the primary driver of climate change means that, for the purpose of formulating economic policy, the debate shifts from whether the problem exists to how to _______ it.

Arrange the following stages in the correct chronological order to illustrate how a scientific idea about a global phenomenon, such as human-induced climate change, typically evolves from an initial proposal to an established consensus.

A city council is deciding whether to invest in expensive flood-prevention infrastructure. They are presented with four different sources of information regarding the risk of future flooding. Based on the principles of establishing a reliable scientific foundation for policy, which source should be given the most weight in their decision-making?