History’s Hockey Stick: Stagnant Income Before Sustained Growth

Interpreting UK and Japan's Real GDP Growth (1875-2023) using Linear and Ratio Scales

Economic Fluctuations (Business Cycles)

An economic historian presents a graph of a country's average income per person over the last 500 years. The graph shows a long, flat period followed by a sharp, steep increase in the most recent 150 years. Based on the typical pattern of economic development, which of the following statements most accurately describes what a detailed view of the last 150 years would likely show?

Interpreting Economic Growth Patterns

Evaluating an Economic Historian's Conclusion

A country's long-term economic growth path, which shows a dramatic increase in average income over the last two centuries, implies that each successive year during this period saw a higher average income than the preceding year.

An economist is analyzing a graph showing a country's average income per person over the last 200 years. The graph displays a dramatic and sustained increase, particularly over the most recent 50 years. Based on this long-term trend, the economist concludes, "The last 50 years represent a period of uninterrupted economic expansion." Which of the following statements provides the most accurate critique of this conclusion?

Critiquing Simplified Economic Growth Models

An economic model shows a country's average income following a strong, positive, long-term growth trend over a 75-year period. If you were to examine the detailed year-by-year data for any single five-year segment within this timeframe, which of the following patterns would you most likely observe?

A country's long-term economic growth path, when viewed year-by-year, shows significant fluctuations around its general upward trend. Match each historical event to its most likely short-term impact on this year-to-year growth path.

Evaluating an Investment Strategy

Analyzing a Statement on Economic Growth

An economic historian presents four stylized charts, each depicting a country's average income over the last 300 years. All four charts show a long period of near-stagnation followed by a period of rapid, sustained growth. Which of the following descriptions best represents the typical historical experience of a country that has undergone this transformation?

Interpreting Economic Growth Data

Critiquing a Simplified Economic Model

The 'hockey stick' representation of long-term economic growth accurately illustrates that once an economy begins its period of rapid development, its average income increases consistently year after year without significant setbacks.

A country's economic output over a long period can be described by both its overall trajectory and the shorter-term movements within that path. Match each economic term to the description that best fits its role in this long-term growth story.

The Nuances of Long-Term Economic Growth

Evaluating a Statement on Economic Growth

An economist creates a graph showing a country's average income over the last 500 years. The graph shows a long, flat period for the first 400 years, followed by a sharp, sustained upward trend for the last 100 years. If the economist were to create a new, more detailed graph focusing only on the last 100 years of rapid growth, which of the following patterns would they most likely observe?

The 'hockey stick' model of economic history shows a long period of stagnation followed by a sharp, sustained increase in average incomes. However, the period of sustained growth is not a smooth, uninterrupted line. The statements below describe different phases within this growth period for a hypothetical country. Arrange them in a plausible chronological order to represent a typical economic cycle.

Analyzing a Political Claim about Economic History

Economic Volatility