Trajectory models are concerned with describing the course of a measured variable over time. In the case of natural disasters, group-based trajectory models are used to try and describe and predict the changes in the group being studied over a period of time.

Washington State University at Tri-Cities

Research shows that outcome trajectories for acute-onset natural climate change-related disasters are similar to those of other traumatic life events where the majority of people involved come out of the event with healthy and normative function, or resilience.

Trajectory Outcomes of Acute-Onset Climate Disasters and Relation to Mental Health and Resilience

Shuquan Chen, Rohini Bagrodia, Charlotte C. Pfeffer, Laura Meli, George A. Bonanno,
Anxiety and resilience in the face of natural disasters associated with climate change: A review and methodological critique, Journal of Anxiety Disorders, Volume 76, 2020, 102297, ISSN 0887-6185, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102297.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0887618520301110)

Climate Change and Anxiety Reference

Trajectory Models 

Using trajectory models, research has shown that a minority of people exposed to acute-onset climate change-related natural disasters have diagnosable levels of anxiety, depression, PTSD, or grief with an estimated high-end ceiling of 30% (usually lower).

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