Causation

Upward Wage Adjustment in the Wage-Price Spiral

Following a period where their real wage has fallen due to unexpected inflation, workers adjust their inflation expectations upwards to the new, higher rate (e.g., 5%). In the subsequent wage-setting round, the HR department must increase nominal wages to cover both the new expected inflation and the existing positive bargaining gap (e.g., 5% expected inflation + 2% for the bargaining gap = 7% nominal wage increase). This upward wage adjustment causes the Phillips curve to shift up again.

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Updated 2025-10-05

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