Causation

Why Different Dev and Test Distributions Complicate Diagnosis

When development and test sets come from different distributions, strong dev performance followed by weak test performance has several possible causes. The model may have overfit the dev set, the test distribution may contain intrinsically harder examples, or the model may generalize poorly across the distribution shift. Because these causes imply different remedies, the score gap alone does not identify what to fix.

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Updated 2026-09-12

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