Concept

A Modeling Study on the Impact of School Closures in the UK on COVID-19

  • The only study in the review that examined the effect of school closures separately to other social distancing measures.
  • Ferguson and colleagues used UK population and schools data was used with data on transmission dynamics reported from the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan.
  • Using data from previous influenza outbreaks, they assumed that per-capita contacts within schools were double those in households, workplaces, or the community.
  • They concluded that approximately ⅓ of COVID-19 transmission occurred in schools.
  • The scenario modeled proposed a closure of all schools and 25% of universities remain open. This resulted in household contact rates for student families increasing by 50% during closure. Contacts in the community increase by 25% during closure.
  • School closure as an isolated measure was predicted to reduce total deaths by 2-4% during a COVID-19 outbreak in the UK.
  • Concluded that school closure alone would be insufficient to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic and a combination of measures would be most effective in suppressing the spread of COVID-19.

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Updated 2020-08-08

Tags

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)

Biomedical Sciences