Short Answer

A psychologist plans to use rationalist deduction to conclude that a new therapy will reduce anxiety in a specific client, starting with the premise: 'All clinical therapies approved by our board reduce anxiety.' Applying the lesson from the black swan example, what must the psychologist do to ensure their conclusion is valid?

Question: A psychologist plans to use rationalist deduction to conclude that a new therapy will reduce anxiety in a specific client, starting with the premise: 'All clinical therapies approved by our board reduce anxiety.' Applying the lesson from the black swan example, what must the psychologist do to ensure their conclusion is valid?

Sample answer: To ensure the conclusion is valid, the psychologist must verify in reality that the starting premise is factually true (that every single board-approved therapy actually reduces anxiety). If even one approved therapy does not reduce anxiety, the premise is factually wrong and the deduction will fail, just like the swan premise failed when a black swan was found.

Key points:

  • Applies the lesson by stating that the initial premise must be verified for factual accuracy in reality.
  • Explains that the validity of the conclusion depends on the truth of the starting premise.
  • Connects the scenario to the vulnerability of rationalism failing when premises are factually wrong.

Rubric: The answer should specify that the psychologist must verify the factual truth of the initial premise in reality to prevent the deduction from failing due to a false starting assumption.

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Updated 2026-05-27

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Research Methods in Psychology - 4th American Edition @ KPU

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