University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Massey & Probasco (2010) used the National Longitudinal Survey of Freshmen to analyze potential contributing factors to the achievement gap in freshmen students of varying ethnic backgrounds. Using the NLSF's extensive survey results, Massey & Probasco modeled and compared various facets of students' experiences and personal information to see which factors, if any, could explain the achievement gap. 86 variables were considered and analyzed to see if they had any effect on GPA and graduation rate. Among the variables where:

- Institutional selectivity
- Major
- Stereotype threat
- Living situation

Initial analysis reveals that White males/females and Asian male/females are clustered together at the top in terms of performance, with Hispanic females, Hispanic males, Black Females and Black males trailing behind in overall performance, in that order.

Academic Predictive Factors - NLSF

Massey, Douglas S, and Lierin Probasco. “Divergent Streams: Race-Gender Achievement Gaps at Selective Colleges and Universities.” Du Bois review : social science research on race vol. 7,1 (2010): 219-246. doi:10.1017/S1742058X10000160

Divergent Streams: Race-Gender Achievement Gaps at Selective Colleges and Universities

Academic Predictive Factors - NLSF GPA

Academic Predictive Factors - NSLF Graduation

When considering students that take more than 4 years to graduate, but less than 6 years the predictive factors change slightly. However, according to Massey & Probasco's analysis, students persisting past 6 years are highly unlikely to ever graduate, making these factors the most consistent predictors for all students.

Academic Predictive Factors - NSLF Graduation (6 yrs)

The following variables were found to have unexpected effects on student GPA according to Massey and Probasco:
- Choice of major, institutional selectivity, self esteem/efficacy, and foreign birth has little effect on GPA.
- Parental education is strongly positively associated with performance, but drops off sharply after the first year.
- Seeking help from the institution is associated with lower grades, though this is suspected to be the other way around; students struggling academically are more likely to seek aid.
- Participation in academic extracurricular groups is associated with better grades, while participation in frats, sororities and race-related groups is associated with lower grades.
- Negative race-related experiences is associated with lower grades.

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