Multiple Choice

An economy's unemployment rate is held persistently below its equilibrium level. In Year 1, this leads to a positive 'bargaining gap' where workers have stronger negotiating power. Initially, inflation was 2%, but by the end of Year 1, it has risen to 4%. If workers and firms base their expectations for the next year's inflation on the most recent year's actual inflation rate, what is the most likely outcome for the inflation rate in Year 2 and beyond, assuming the low unemployment continues?

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Updated 2025-09-16

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