Essay

Analyzing Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Data

Consider two countries, A and B, with fully mobile capital between them. For a three-year period, the central bank in Country A maintained a stable policy interest rate of 5%, while the central bank in Country B maintained a stable rate of 2%. At the beginning of this period, the exchange rate was 100 units of B's currency for 1 unit of A's currency. At the end of the three years, the exchange rate was 91 units of B's currency for 1 unit of A's currency. Analyze this data and explain whether the observed outcome for the exchange rate is consistent with the economic principle that connects interest rate differentials and currency value expectations. Justify your conclusion.

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Updated 2025-09-16

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