Figure 1 shows the projected and observed COVID-19 hospitalizations in four states (Colorado, Minnesota, Ohio, and Virginia) before and after the effective stay-at-home dates. In each state, cumulative hospitalizations deviated from the exponential growth curve models to fall outside of the 95% prediction bands soon after the effective stay-at-home date.

*It's important to note that other factors such as school closures, social distancing, and avoidance of hospitals may have affected COVID-19 hospitalizations.