In four states (Colorado, Minnesota, Ohio, and Virginia), cumulative hospitalizations from March 2020 to April 2020 fit an exponential growth curve leading up to the effective stay-at-home date (R2 = 0.973  in Colorado, 0.965 in Minnesota, 0.98  in Ohio, and 0.994 in Virginia) compared to a linear fit (R2= 0.695 in Colorado, 0.865 in Minnesota, 0.803 in Ohio, and 0.775 in Virginia). The exponential model fit was used to estimate the 95% prediction bands for future hospitalizations.

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

The authors argue that unlike case count (which is a conservative estimate) and death count (which is a delayed and insufficient estimate), hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are a stronger metric for evaluating the effectiveness of stay-at-home measures. The study consisted of four states (Colorado, Minnesota, Ohio, and Virginia) that fit the inclusion criteria of having at least 7 consecutive days of cumulative hospitalization before and 17 days following the stay-at-home date.

Association between decreased hospitalizations and stay-at-home orders in four states in U.S.

Sen, S., Karaca-Madnic, P., & Georgiou, A. (2020). Association of Stay-at-Home Orders With COVID-19 Hospitalizations in 4 States. JAMA.

doi:10.1001/jama.2020.9176

Association of Stay-at-Home Orders With COVID-19 Hospitalizations in 4 States

Association between decreased hospitalizations and stay-at-home orders in four states in U.S. Table 1.

Figure 1 shows the projected and observed COVID-19 hospitalizations in four states (Colorado, Minnesota, Ohio, and Virginia) before and after the effective stay-at-home dates. In each state, cumulative hospitalizations deviated from the exponential growth curve models to fall outside of the 95% prediction bands soon after the effective stay-at-home date. 

*It's important to note that other factors such as school closures, social distancing, and avoidance of hospitals may have affected COVID-19 hospitalizations. 

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