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Bias Correction in Exponentially Weighted Averages

In an exponentially weighted average, when the time step tt is small, the estimation only considers a few data points. This can cause an initial bias towards smaller values, especially if the initial value is set to v0=0v_0 = 0. Bias correction adjusts these early estimates to provide a more accurate trend. The bias-corrected value vtv_t' is calculated as:

vt=vt1βtv_t' = \frac{v_t}{1 - \beta^t}

where vtv_t is the uncorrected exponentially weighted average and β\beta is the weighting parameter. For example, as shown in the accompanying diagram, without correction, the early temperature estimates (the purple curve) indicate artificially low values due to the influence of the zero initialization, whereas the bias-corrected estimates (the green curve) better approximate the true underlying trend.

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Updated 2026-05-17

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Data Science