Problem

Cause-Effect Pair Challenge

Telling cause from effect from purely observational data, focusing on pairs of variables (X, Y), was introduced as a challenge at the NIPS 2008 workshop on causality. The basic scenario is: given independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) observations (x1,y1),,(xk,yk)(x_1, y_1), \dots, (x_k, y_k) drawn from a distribution PX,YP_{X,Y}, infer whether XX causes YY or YY causes XX, given the promise that exactly one is true. The NIPS 2013 challenge extended this to three classes: X rightarrow Y, Y rightarrow X, or a null class consisting of either the independent case XYX \perp Y or the pure confounding case X leftrightarrow Y (shorthand for X leftarrow H rightarrow Y, where HH is an unobserved confounder).

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Updated 2026-06-18

Tags

Data Science