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Cause-Effect Pairs in Time Series
Let us consider two scalar stochastic processes and , , each observed for realizations. We assume that and are covariance stationary, or that and are covariance stationary. If we exclude the possibility that the future can cause the past, but allow contemporaneous feedback loops due, for example, to temporal aggregation, there are several possibilities regarding the causal structure between and :
- (i) The series has a contemporaneous or lagged causal effect on , i.e., x_i rightarrow y_{i + s} for some i, s such that .
- (ii) The series has a contemporaneous or lagged causal effect on , i.e., y_i rightarrow x_{i + s} for some i, s such that .
- (iii) An unmeasured series has a contemporaneous or lagged causal effect on both and .
- (iv) The causal structure between and can be described by any combination of (i)–(iii).
- (v) There is no causal link or path (of any type) linking and , for any .
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Updated 2026-06-15
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