Concept

Cause-Effect Pairs in Time Series

Let us consider two scalar stochastic processes xtx_t and yty_t, tZt \in \mathbb{Z}, each observed for TT realizations. We assume that xtx_t and yty_t are covariance stationary, or that Δxt\Delta x_t and Δyt\Delta y_t are covariance stationary. If we exclude the possibility that the future can cause the past, but allow contemporaneous feedback loops due, for example, to temporal aggregation, there are several possibilities regarding the causal structure between xtx_t and yty_t:

  • (i) The series xtx_t has a contemporaneous or lagged causal effect on yty_t, i.e., x_i rightarrow y_{i + s} for some i, s such that i0,s0i \geq 0, s \geq 0.
  • (ii) The series yty_t has a contemporaneous or lagged causal effect on xtx_t, i.e., y_i rightarrow x_{i + s} for some i, s such that i0,s0i \geq 0, s \geq 0.
  • (iii) An unmeasured series ztz_t has a contemporaneous or lagged causal effect on both xtx_t and yty_t.
  • (iv) The causal structure between xtx_t and yty_t can be described by any combination of (i)–(iii).
  • (v) There is no causal link or path (of any type) linking xtx_t and yt+sy_{t + s}, for any sNs \in \mathbb{N}.

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Updated 2026-06-15

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Data Science