Case Study

Choose the appropriate target when stakeholders propose a 5% x-ray diagnosis error rate.

Case context: An x-ray diagnosis project has four human baselines: 15% for a typical person with basic training, 10% for a junior doctor, 5% for an experienced doctor, and 2% for a small team that debates each image. Stakeholders propose 5% as the desired error rate.

Question: Diagnose the problem with the proposed target and recommend the human-level proxy and desired error rate supported by the evidence.

Sample answer: The 5% proposal uses the experienced individual doctor rather than the best achievable human baseline. Because the doctor team achieves 2% error, 5% is too high as the human-level proxy and desired performance level. The project should use 2% as its reasonable proxy and desired error rate, while allowing that the true optimal error could be lower.

Key points:

  • A team outperforms the experienced individual doctor.
  • The proposed 5% target is higher than an achievable 2% result.
  • Use 2% as the human-level and optimal-error proxy.
  • The actual optimal error could be below 2%.

Rubric: The response should reject 5% using the team evidence, recommend 2% for both the proxy and desired performance, and avoid claiming that 2% must equal the true optimal error.

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Updated 2026-07-20

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