A 42-year-old client comes to a clinic for a routine check-up. Their medical history indicates they experienced a single major depressive episode ten years ago, which was successfully treated, and they have been symptom-free since. The client expresses concern about the possibility of the condition returning. Based on typical statistical patterns for this disorder, which of the following statements most accurately reflects their risk of experiencing a second episode?

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The likelihood of experiencing a subsequent episode of major depressive disorder increases with each new occurrence. After a single episode, there is a 50% to 60% chance of having a second one. This probability rises to 70% for a third episode after two have occurred, and it further increases to 90% for a fourth episode after three have occurred.

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