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Conclusion from Counterfactuals: Necessity of Colonial Inputs and Markets for the British Industrial Revolution

Counterfactual analysis strongly suggests that Britain's colonies and the institution of slavery were necessary for the Industrial Revolution. This conclusion is based on the impracticality of sourcing key inputs domestically; for example, replacing colonial sugar and cotton with British farm products would have been impossible due to land constraints. Furthermore, even if alternative non-colonial sources for these raw materials could have been found, they would have been substantially more expensive. The higher costs would have hindered the rapid expansion of output that characterized the revolution. This dependency on inputs was coupled with a reliance on colonial markets, which provided the necessary demand to fuel industrial growth.

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Updated 2025-09-29

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