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Relation

Conditional Probability With do() Versus Without

Suppose we want to find the probability that a patient avoids the flu (AA) given they received the flu shot (FSFS). The difference between conditional probability with the do()do() operator and without is:

  • With the do()do() operator (P(A∣do(FS))P(A|do(FS))): The probability that a typical patient would avoid the flu if they were assigned to get the shot (by intervention, removing personal choice).
  • Without the do()do() operator (P(A∣FS)P(A|FS)): The probability that a patient avoided the flu given they were observed to take the flu shot. This represents the observed frequency of flu avoidance among patients who volunteered to get the shot.

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Updated 2026-06-15

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Data Science