Activity (Process)

Deriving the Phillips Curve from the WS-PS Model with Positive Expected Inflation

The Phillips curve can be derived from the WS-PS model even when inflation expectations are positive. The process begins at the supply-side equilibrium (point A), where unemployment is at its structural rate (e.g., 6%) and the actual inflation rate matches the expected rate (e.g., 3%). During a business upswing, increased aggregate demand can lower unemployment to, for instance, 4% (point B). At this point, workers anticipate 3% inflation and demand a corresponding 3% nominal wage increase to maintain their real wage. In addition, their stronger bargaining position prompts them to seek a 2% real wage rise, leading to a total nominal wage increase of 5%. To preserve their profit margins, firms pass this 5% cost increase on to consumers by raising prices by 5%. This results in an actual inflation rate of 5% at 4% unemployment, plotting a new point on the Phillips curve for the given level of expected inflation.

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Updated 2026-05-02

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Ch.5 Macroeconomic policy: Inflation and unemployment - The Economy 2.0 Macroeconomics @ CORE Econ

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