Diagnose the conceptual error in the student's conclusion and explain what the -value of .04 actually means in this context.
Case context: A student reads a research article reporting a -value of .04. The student concludes that there is only a probability that the null hypothesis is true.
Question: Diagnose the conceptual error in the student's conclusion and explain what the -value of .04 actually means in this context.
Sample answer: The student has made the frequent error of misinterpreting the -value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true. A -value of .04 actually means that if the null hypothesis were true, there is a probability of .04 (or ) of obtaining the observed sample result.
Key points:
- Identify the student's conclusion as a frequent misinterpretation.
- State that the -value does not represent the probability that the null hypothesis is true.
- Explain that the -value of .04 is the probability of the sample result.
- Specify that this probability is calculated under the assumption that the null hypothesis were true.
Rubric: Full credit requires identifying the student's error as a misinterpretation of the -value's meaning and providing the correct interpretation based on the sample result and the assumption that the null hypothesis is true.
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Research Methods in Psychology - 4th American Edition @ KPU
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