Case context: A team works on a third-party benchmark. The benchmark creator has specified a dev set and a test set that come from different distributions.

Question: What should the team diagnose about the influence of luck on its benchmark performance, and what comparison supports that diagnosis?

Sample answer: The team should diagnose that luck can have a greater impact on its performance because the dev and test sets come from different distributions. This conclusion is supported by comparison with a benchmark whose dev and test sets come from the same distribution, where luck would have less impact.

Key points:

• The setting is a third-party benchmark.
• The creator specified different dev and test distributions.
• Luck can have a greater impact on performance.
• The relevant comparison uses dev and test sets from the same distribution.

Rubric: The response must connect the creator-specified distribution mismatch to a greater influence of luck and explicitly compare it with the same-distribution condition. It should not claim that performance is determined entirely by luck.