Case Study

Diagnosing an Unprofitable Insurance Policy

An insurance company, 'GadgetGuard', introduced a new one-year policy covering a popular brand of tablet against screen damage. Based on market research, they set their annual premium. After the first year, they discover this policy line is unprofitable, with total claim payouts exceeding total premiums collected. The company's initial break-even calculation was based on two key estimates: the probability of a claim being filed and the average cost of a claim. Analyze the two distinct errors in their initial estimates that could explain this financial loss. For each potential error, explain precisely how it would cause the collected premiums to be insufficient to cover the claims.

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Updated 2025-09-17

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