Essay

Evaluating a 'Cold Turkey' Disinflation Policy

A country is experiencing persistent inflation at 12% annually, while unemployment is stable at 5%. The central bank proposes a 'cold turkey' approach: aggressively raising interest rates to bring inflation down to its 2% target within 18 months. Economic models predict this action will cause a severe recession, with unemployment likely doubling to 10% during that period before slowly recovering. Evaluate this proposed policy. In your answer, analyze the primary trade-off involved and argue whether the long-term benefit of price stability justifies the short-term economic pain.

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Updated 2025-09-14

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Economics

Economy

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