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Case Study

Evaluating a Model's Predictive Power

An urban planning department uses a sophisticated computer model to forecast traffic congestion. The model's inputs include the number of registered vehicles, the schedule for road maintenance, and data on public transit usage. Last year, the model's predictions were highly accurate. This year, a new ride-sharing service, not accounted for in the model's original design, launched in the city and became extremely popular. As a result, the model's forecasts for traffic congestion were significantly inaccurate. A city council member argues that the model is fundamentally flawed and should be abandoned because it failed to foresee the impact of the new service. Based on the principles of economic and systems modeling, evaluate the council member's argument. Is their conclusion that the model is 'fundamentally flawed' justified? Explain your reasoning.

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Updated 2025-08-11

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