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Evaluating a Proposed Natural Experiment on Disaster Impact

A researcher wants to study the long-term economic impact of a major hurricane. They identify two coastal cities, City A and City B, that had similar population sizes and economic profiles ten years ago. Last year, a powerful hurricane directly hit City A, while City B was completely unaffected. The researcher proposes to compare the current economic growth of City A (the treatment group) with that of City B (the control group) to determine the causal effect of the hurricane. Critically evaluate this research design. In your answer, explain why this setup resembles a natural experiment, but also identify and discuss at least one significant potential problem that could weaken the researcher's ability to draw a valid causal conclusion.

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Updated 2025-09-16

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