Essay

Evaluating a 20th-Century Economic Forecast

In 1930, a famous economist predicted that by the early 21st century, technological progress would be so great that people in developed nations would only need to work 15 hours per week. He argued that the 'economic problem' of basic subsistence would be solved, leading people to choose vastly more leisure time. Critically evaluate this prediction. In your answer, identify which part of the forecast was accurate and which was not, and provide a detailed analysis of the primary reason for the inaccuracy, drawing upon the trade-off between income and free time.

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Updated 2025-09-15

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