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Case Study

Evaluating an Unprecedented Policy Intervention

A government is evaluating a proposal to fund a novel, large-scale atmospheric carbon capture technology. Proponents claim it could completely reverse the effects of climate change within a decade. However, some scientists warn that, because the technology is entirely unprecedented, it could also trigger unforeseen and potentially catastrophic global ecological consequences. There is no historical data or reliable model to estimate the likelihood of either the promised benefits or the potential disasters. Based on this scenario, explain why a policymaker would find it exceptionally difficult to use a standard cost-benefit analysis, which involves comparing the expected marginal social costs and marginal social benefits, to decide whether to fund this project.

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Updated 2025-09-14

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