Essay

Evaluating Central Bank Policy Responses to Supply-Side Inflation

Imagine an economy is experiencing a period of high inflation, primarily driven by a persistent negative supply shock (e.g., disruptions to global energy markets and supply chains). The central bank is under pressure to act. Critically evaluate two potential policy responses:

  1. An aggressive and immediate increase in the policy interest rate to bring inflation back to the target level as quickly as possible.
  2. A more gradual, 'wait-and-see' approach, where the central bank raises rates modestly or not at all, in the hope that the supply shock is temporary and will resolve itself.

In your evaluation, you must analyze the likely consequences of each approach on both inflation and unemployment in the short to medium term. Conclude by recommending one of the approaches, providing a clear justification for your choice based on the trade-offs involved.

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Updated 2025-10-08

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